【考研雅思必读】外刊精读:《经济学人》中国农民工归栖何处

如今，越来越多的农民工“不想再漂”，他们正站在新的十字路口：去沿海大城市赚钱，还是回乡安稳过日子？从前闭眼选前者，如今工地活儿少了，家里的地也租出去了，回村也难混口饭。年轻一代则想得开些：钱要赚，但家庭更要紧。跨省打工的人变少了，不少人选择在家门口“卷”，尽管工资低一点。

本次精读文章选自一月最后一期《The Economist》的“CHAGUAN”（茶馆）专栏：Home for a rest-China fears a flood of unemployed workers in rural areas. 文章揭示了当代中国社会面临的劳动力结构再平衡难题。一方面，经济增长引擎动能减弱，导致低技能岗位（low-skilled jobs）收缩，就业压力增大；另一方面，新生代农民工价值观从“生存型迁徙”向“生活型安居”方向转变。原文较长，本文有删减。文末配有雅思大作文相关题目解析哦~

Keywords：

economic slowdown  经济放缓

rural households/land-use rights  农村家庭/土地使用权

export factories/coastal regions  出口工厂/沿海地区

downward pressure（on wages） （工资）下行压力

labor force  劳动力

migrant workers  农民工

values shift  价值观转变

节后返城的担忧与现实

China is limbering up to its annual great migration. This year, however, there is concern that rural folk who normally work in cities may stay in the countryside after the holiday because the jobs they do are getting harder to find. In November China's rural-affairs ministry sounded a warning. 中国一年一度的春运大迁徙正在拉开序幕。然而今年，人们担忧那些通常在城里工作的农村人可能会在节后留在乡下，因为他们所从事的工作正变得越来越难找。十一月，中国农业农村事物部发出了警告。

It is rare for officials to voice concerns that bluntly. To get a sense of what is actually happening, Chaguan recently travelled to a couple of places. The government's concerns appear to be overblown. On balance, jobs and opportunities will lead most migrants back to cities after the new year. Yet attitudes are shifting in ways that will trouble officials gunning for economic growth.官员们如此直白地表达担忧实属罕见。为了解实际情况，茶馆专栏最近走访了几个传统上大量输出农民工的地方。政府的担忧似乎被夸大了。总的来说，工作和机会仍会在新年之后将大多数农民工引回城市。但人们的观念正在发生转变，这让力争经济增长的官员们感到头疼。

新旧困境对比与地方收纳局限

There are crucial differences this time. The economic downshift feels more permanent. Weakness in the property market looks likely to persist, reducing the construction jobs that had absorbed（过去完成时，表明“吸收”这一动作发生在“reduce 减少”之前，即“过去的过去”，所以是“曾吸收”） many migrants. At the same time the countryside no longer provides much of a backstop. Many rural citizens have relinquished their land-use rights. In 2008 less than 10% of rural households had contracted out their land rights; today the figure is closer to 40%.  这一次存在着关键的不同。经济放缓的感觉更为持久。房地产市场的疲软看来很可能持续，减少了曾吸纳许多农民工的建筑岗位。同时，乡村也不再能提供多少后盾。许多农村居民已经放弃了他们的土地使用权。2008年，只有不到10%的农村家庭转让了土地权利；如今，这一比例已接近40%。

Not far from one village is Zhoukou, a mid-sized city. In a shopping mall, the government is running an office to help people find local jobs. A woman at the desk says the numbers coming home have surged over the past month because export factories in coastal regions have closed early. She says she can connect them with temporary gigs as delivery drivers but that is about it.  离某个村庄不远处是周口市。在一家购物中心，政府开设了一个办公室帮助人们寻找本地工作。服务台的一位女士说，过去一个月返乡人数激增，因为沿海地区的出口工厂提早关闭了。她说可以帮他们联系快递司机之类的临时零工，但也就这些了。

Elsewhere trends are slightly more promising. The central government wants towns to build up their industries. In the neighbouring province of Hubei, that is happening. Companies have set up in Hubei towns to tap into the local workforce directly. The highway there is lined with new factories and dormitories.  其他地方的趋势略显乐观。中央政府希望各地城镇发展产业。在邻近的湖北省，这正在成为现实。企业已在湖北的一些城镇设厂，以直接利用当地劳动力。那里的高速公路旁排列着新的工厂和员工宿舍。

But local economies can only absorb so many. Indeed, the more that people return to inland towns and compete for a limited number of jobs, the more that wages there will face downward pressure. “It’s possible to find work here, but the pay is lower than in Guangzhou and lower than in previous years,” one returnee says.  但地方经济只能吸收这么多人。确实，越多的人返回内陆城镇，竞争有限的工作岗位，那里的工资就会面临越大的下行压力。“在这里找到工作是有可能的，但工资比广州低，也比往年低了，”一位返乡者说。

从“迁徙”到“安居”

China's economic slowdown thus presents migrants with an unfamiliar dilemma. Moving to large faraway cities near the coast used to be a no-brainer. Such places still offer more work and better pay. But prospects are not what they once were. For the younger generation, other factors are also at play. Many are staying closer to home. Of China’s roughly 180m rural folk who move away for employment, 47% crossed into other provinces in 2014; now, a decade later, just 38% do. 因此，中国的经济放缓给农民工带来了一个陌生的困境。搬到沿海大城市曾经是不需思考的选择。这些地方仍然提供更多的工作和更好的报酬。但前景已不如往昔。对于年轻一代，其他因素也在起作用。许多人选择留在离家更近的地方。在中国约1.8亿离乡就业的农村人口中，2014年有47%跨省流动；如今，十年过去了，这一比例仅为38%。

Near the job centre in Zhoukou, a ruddy-faced He Gaoqiang waits for his wife and daughter to come out of a shop. As a skilled handyman he could find better-paid work in bigger cities. But he returned after his daughter was born. “Being with my family just feels right,” he says. Getting stuck in a smaller town is not a problem for him; it is what he wanted. For state planners who count on hard-driving migrants to help fuel China’s economy, this is a new and not entirely welcome trend: people are settling down. 周口市就业服务中心旁，面色红润的何高强正等着妻子和女儿从商店出来。作为一名熟练的手艺人，他本可以在更大的城市找到报酬更高的工作。但他在女儿出生后选择了返回。“和家人在一起感觉才对，”他说。呆在小城镇对他来说不是问题；这正是他想要的。对于那些指望吃苦耐劳的农民工来帮助推动中国经济发展的国家规划者而言，这是一个新的、并不完全受欢迎的趋势：人们正在安定下来。